News & Publications

US-China Trade Tensions and Vietnam

The escalation of US-China trade tensions is weighing on Vietnam’s stock market, despite the country’s solid macroeconomic fundamentals and despite the fact that a protracted US-China trade war would benefit Vietnam by accelerating the move of manufacturing from China to Vietnam.

July 24th, 2018|

Vietnam Stock Market Sell-Off

Vietnam’s stock market has been swept up in the Emerging Market sell-off, but this is the result of exogenous factors; the country continues to have strong economic conditions and its currency is relatively stable. In fact, Vietnam is not highly vulnerable to the risk factors causing alarm in other EMs.

July 06th, 2018|

VND falls nearly 1% in one week

The VN Dong fell nearly 1% this week, including ~0.3% yesterday, and ~0.3% over last weekend. Investors are probably comfortable if depreciation stays below 2% YTD. Meanwhile, the official reference rate is up 0.9% YTD, so Vietnam’s unofficial FX rate is still within the official band of +/- 3%. Depreciation is being driven by: 1) DXY index, 2) risk aversion, as evidenced by gold prices, 3) USD flows.

June 22nd, 2018|

What’s next for the USD & Vietnam

VinaCapital’s Chief Economist Michael Kokalari writes about the impact a rising US Dollar will have on Vietnam, and how the country is in a better position compared to some other emerging markets.

June 01st, 2018|

VinaCapital comments on recent market volatility, positive long-term prospects

After gaining 22% in the first quarter of 2018 and peaking at 1,204 points in early April, the VN Index has seen a sharp decline over the past six weeks, erasing all of the gains it made year-to-date and closing below 1,000. VinaCapital provides its views on what’s behind this correction and why it continues to have confidence in the market’s long term prospects.

May 23rd, 2018|

Vietnam Dong stable despite emerging market currency sell-off

The value of the Vietnam Dong has remained remarkably stable this year, despite the depreciation of several emerging market currencies that prompted significant capital outflows from those countries. Furthermore, this week Fitch upgraded Vietnam’s credit rating to BB, the first time since early 2014, citing the country’s improved ability to absorb external shocks. Our Chief Economist explains why Vietnam has been resilient while other countries have not.

May 17th, 2018|

Building on the momentum: Looking ahead at 2018

By most accounts, 2017 has been a very positive year for Vietnam’s economic development. GDP growth is expected to come in at or around 6.7%, driven by strong activity in the manufacturing and services sector, as well as robust retail sales growth, among other factors. Meanwhile, the stock market is up over 40%, making it one of the top performers in the world. Is this sort of growth sustainable? And where are the opportunities and risks in the market in 2018?

December 22nd, 2017|

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