The escalation of US-China trade tensions is weighing on Vietnam’s stock market, despite the country’s solid macroeconomic fundamentals and despite the fact that a protracted US-China trade war would benefit Vietnam by accelerating the move of manufacturing from China to Vietnam.
Vietnam’s stock market has been swept up in the Emerging Market sell-off, but this is the result of exogenous factors; the country continues to have strong economic conditions and its currency is relatively stable. In fact, Vietnam is not highly vulnerable to the risk factors causing alarm in other EMs.
Investors in Vietnam’s stock market are currently focused on China’s FX rate. There are misplaced concerns that CNY devaluation impacts Vietnam’s economy, and negative sentiment from local and foreign investors alike, triggered by CNY devaluation.
The VN Dong fell nearly 1% this week, including ~0.3% yesterday, and ~0.3% over last weekend. Investors are probably comfortable if depreciation stays below 2% YTD. Meanwhile, the official reference rate is up 0.9% YTD, so Vietnam’s unofficial FX rate is still within the official band of +/- 3%. Depreciation is being driven by: 1) DXY index, 2) risk aversion, as evidenced by gold prices, 3) USD flows.
VinaCapital’s Chief Economist Michael Kokalari writes about the impact a rising US Dollar will have on Vietnam, and how the country is in a better position compared to some other emerging markets.
After gaining 22% in the first quarter of 2018 and peaking at 1,204 points in early April, the VN Index has seen a sharp decline over the past six weeks, erasing all of the gains it made year-to-date and closing below 1,000. VinaCapital provides its views on what’s behind this correction and why it continues to have confidence in the market’s long term prospects.
The value of the Vietnam Dong has remained remarkably stable this year, despite the depreciation of several emerging market currencies that prompted significant capital outflows from those countries. Furthermore, this week Fitch upgraded Vietnam’s credit rating to BB, the first time since early 2014, citing the country’s improved ability to absorb external shocks. Our Chief Economist explains why Vietnam has been resilient while other countries have not.
After several successful share sales and IPOs, Vietnam’s equitization/privatization program has picked up steam in recent months. What’s behind this activity, and where are things headed?
VinaCapital and Maybank Kim Eng host Corporate Day in London to showcase some of Vietnam’s most dynamic companies
The event featured senior leaders from the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange, Coteccons, FPT Retail, HDBank, PNJ, Eximbank, and VietJet. His Excellency Mr Tran Ngoc An, Vietnam’s Ambassador to the UK, opened trading on the London Stock Exchange along with Don Lam, CEO of VinaCapital and others.
By most accounts, 2017 has been a very positive year for Vietnam’s economic development. GDP growth is expected to come in at or around 6.7%, driven by strong activity in the manufacturing and services sector, as well as robust retail sales growth, among other factors. Meanwhile, the stock market is up over 40%, making it one of the top performers in the world. Is this sort of growth sustainable? And where are the opportunities and risks in the market in 2018?